$400K - G1 Secretariat -Arlington Park Race 9
It’s likely #1-Real Story and probable favorite #9-Analyze It lock horns in the early going which won’t do C. Brown’s colt any favors at this distance.
Neither #2-Platinum Warrior or #3-Bandua (both well beaten in the Irish Derby at the Curragh on June 30) look like world-beaters although they have won at today’s distance.
After viewing the replay of the (G3) Kent, I was half-tempted to pull the trigger on #8-Untamed Domain (5-1 ML). Glaring me in the face is a horrible stat in the last 5 years: with beaten favorite, graded stakes turfers, G. Motion is 0 for 28 (43% ITM). Much worse when you take away the graded stakes filter— 0 for 219! Ay Caramba.
In my opinion, with a clear trip in his debut, #10-Sniper Kitten could be undefeated. Big improvement off the bench taking the 200K Mystic Lake Mile at Canterbury, maybe Ramsey and Maker could’ve found an easier spot but he doesn’t usually duck anybody. The field’s best turf Tomlinson (349) for the distance; if he takes early money off his 12/1 ML - take note.
Of the A. O’Brien duo, #12-Lucius Tiberius looks like an iron horse. Today will be his 6th race in 84 days! His last few, he has rallied from well back but there is no doubt about his affinity for the distance.
Not sure what to make of #13-Hunting Horn. He was only 3rd best chasing Catholic Boy and Analyze It in the (G1) Belmont Derby with a good trip. No reason to take him at single-digit odds when I’m probably fading Analyze It anyway, right?