DRF Tournaments
BillM's Record:
Wins/Races Profit (loss)
10/58 ($17.00)


Last Week's Picks:

Race: Secretariat

Win: Sniper Kitten
Place: Lucius Tiberius
Show: Analyze It

 

Comments:

$400K - G1 Secretariat -Arlington Park Race 9

It’s likely #1-Real Story and probable favorite #9-Analyze It lock horns in the early going which won’t do C. Brown’s colt any favors at this distance.

Neither #2-Platinum Warrior or #3-Bandua (both well beaten in the Irish Derby at the Curragh on June 30) look like world-beaters although they have won at today’s distance.

After viewing the replay of the (G3) Kent, I was half-tempted to pull the trigger on #8-Untamed Domain (5-1 ML). Glaring me in the face is a horrible stat in the last 5 years: with beaten favorite, graded stakes turfers, G. Motion is 0 for 28 (43% ITM). Much worse when you take away the graded stakes filter— 0 for 219! Ay Caramba.

In my opinion, with a clear trip in his debut, #10-Sniper Kitten could be undefeated. Big improvement off the bench taking the 200K Mystic Lake Mile at Canterbury, maybe Ramsey and Maker could’ve found an easier spot but he doesn’t usually duck anybody. The field’s best turf Tomlinson (349) for the distance; if he takes early money off his 12/1 ML - take note.

Of the A. O’Brien duo, #12-Lucius Tiberius looks like an iron horse. Today will be his 6th race in 84 days! His last few, he has rallied from well back but there is no doubt about his affinity for the distance.

Not sure what to make of #13-Hunting Horn. He was only 3rd best chasing Catholic Boy and Analyze It in the (G1) Belmont Derby with a good trip. No reason to take him at single-digit odds when I’m probably fading Analyze It anyway, right?

Race: Fasig-Tipton Lure

Win: Inspector Lynley
Place: Forge
Show: Projected

 

Comments:

100K - Fasig-Tipton Lure -Saratoga Race 10

Postponed from last weekend with a few new faces.

I liked #3-Inspector Lynley (7/2 ML) much better at last week’s ML of 6/1- such is life, eh. Still looks like Shug has him wound as tight as he can with a four-furlong blowout on Monday. A stakes winner here at Saratoga, I can see him rolling by these with a clear trip which he definitely did not get in the (G2) Wise Dan.

#1-Projected is in good form, last out unable to run down front running Voodoo Song (who is going earlier in today’s (G1) Fourstardave). He can win but his odds will suffer from the C. Brown effect.

I hope someone goes with #5-Mr. Cub, if not he could be a stubborn foe on the lead.

#6-Forge returns to his best distance after a sprint experiment north of the border. His efforts in (G1) Makers Mile and (G3) Tampa Bay fit here. I seriously doubt his 8/1 ML holds.

Is #7-Conquest Panthera really going to go at 5/1 ML? Eesh, not for me. Fellow editor Stivo noted last week (if I recall correctly) of the ride by P. Husbands - it wasn’t great. I think this one is better suited to one-turn races, he can prove me wrong especially at those projected odds.

I’m dying to know the story behind the 2017 winner of this race #9-Zennor. J. Bravo is able to take the call, which wasn’t the case last weekend. He ran hole in the wind that afternoon and hasn’t raced since. I was unable to locate any interview or info from trainer K. McLaughlin. It will be interesting to see what he does. Wow! 4/1 ML off a year plus layoff.

Race: Beverly D.

Win: Daddys Lil Darling
Place: Fourstar Crook
Show: Dona Bruja

 

Comments:

$600K - G1 Beverly D - Arlington Park Race 10

Maybe if Chad Brown wins today they might rename it the C. Brown Invitational? With no less than 4 entrants, apparently he means business.

Right out of the box, I’m thinking about taking a swing with #1-Daddys Lil Darling (8/1 ML). Much the best winner of (G3) Modesty last month, she could be underestimated with the presence of Sistercharlie, Fourstar Crook, Don Bruja etc. She needed the Hillsborough in March, the Bewitch was too far versus the sharp filly, Moms On Strike. Maybe I’m reaching a bit but the New York was an ultra-stretched out race and I think M. Smith waited too long with the top two already in front of her at the top of the stretch. Today’s distance is perfect for her and I think she will be in the first flight. Hope she doesn’t make the lead too soon, they’ll have to pass her down the lane.

As my main backup, I’ll take #7-Fourstar Crook who should be a better price than Sistercharlie in the rubber match versus that rival. With the amount of rain over the last several days, she should relish the going, distance no problem.

In the third slot, I’ll take #4-Dona Bruja. Not supposed to be on the lead today, Valdivia will make a run from midpack.

Of course Sistercharlie can win but she will be a short price and I need to catch up. She was all out with clear run in the stretch of the (G1) Diana at nine furlongs against Ultra Brat who I think is inferior to these.

Race: Arlington Million

Win: Money Multiplier
Place: Robert Bruce
Show: Oscar Performance

 

Comments:

$1000K - G1 Arlington Million - Arlington Park Race 11

Living the life here in Saratoga Springs this weekend (much thanks to Carsoni)!

Pointing to this for patient owner G. Strawbridge. Motion might have a runner with #2-Spring Quality (8/1 ML). A big priced winner of the (G1) Manhattan where many were bunched at the wire.

Cutting down to the chase, if #8-Money Multiplier shows up, maybe he can pull the upset under J. Velazquez. Dodging soft going scratching out of the Bowling Green, this trip is within his scope. Most likely the biggest price of the C. Brown trio—the ‘other, other Brown? Why not Almanaar? Without question, he’s talented but he is unproven at this distance and never wins by much.

As a back up, #10-Robert Bruce should be rolling late. First time up for Brown’s main jockey I. Ortiz Jr., this race was likely penciled in as a target all along.

As for the Euros, I don’t believe Circus Couture is good enough, Century Dream’s best distance is probably shorter and Deauville doesn’t appear as fast as last year when he wound up third.

#11-Oscar Performance ran huge in his 2018 debut. Trainer B. Lynch with last out turf route winners in graded stakes is a solid 3/10 (7 ITM). On figures alone, he really isn’t faster than a few of these, so maybe he is worth taking a stand against.


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