DRF Tournaments
D.Wade's Record:
Wins/Races Profit (loss)
8/57 ($32.70)


Last Week's Picks:

Race: Secretariat

Win: Captivating Moon
Place: Platinum Warrior
Show: Analyze It

 

Comments:
10:10 pm Thursday

I feel good about the chance of hitting with one of my 4 main contenders, whom I give a collective 65% chance of winning (Hunting Horn is the 4th). If I were to use a 5th, it would probably be Bandua. It could have been the added ground or the firmer going that left him wanting in his last two, or perhaps he just beat up on short fields of weaker foes in his first two.

Platinum Warrior and Captivating Moon are the value plays. In his G3 win two back, Platinum Warrior beat next out winner of the G1 Irish Derby. He was forwardly placed in 3rd position in the early going of that race, and it is notable that the pace players in 1st, 2nd, and 4th early finished 6th, 8th, and 9th of 10. PW was too far back of a slow pace last out in the aforementioned Derby, and he hit his mouth on the gate, returning sore and with a good amount of blood. I expect that contributed at least in some small part to his poor finish. Expect that he'll be more forwardly-placed here.

I was tempted to make PW my top selection here, but Captivating Moon was my first instinct, and I'm going to stick with him. The pace should be honest enough, and I think CM is the strongest finisher. He has talent, but he has languished too far back in the early going of most of his races. That could change with the added distance, as the pace should be a a little slower, allowing him to at least keep in touch from the outset. You know I love FloGo on the turf, and he retains the mount here. It's a plus that CM stayed at Arlington after the American Derby, so he does not have to ship from his home base. Note that the turf on American Derby day was extremely kind to inside speed, and CM ran against the grain of that bias. I think he's really live at a big price.

Race: Fasig-Tipton Lure

Win: You're to Blame
Place: Secret Passage
Show: Inspector Lynley

 

Comments:
12:50 am Saturday

There is very little chance this one gets rained off the turf, but I'm still going with the two main track-only entrants for my top 2 selections - the reason being I only want Inspector Lynley. If the Inspector scratches, I'm not sure which of the others I'd like to have. This way I get the Inspector or none at all. Mr Cub may have a pace advantage, but note that Divisidero broke out at the start of the Wise Dan, causing Mr. Misunderstood, World Approval, and the Inspector to slam into each other pretty hard. Mr Cub got away cleanly but was still not up to the task.

Race: Beverly D.

Win: Nyaleti
Place: Athena
Show: Daddys Lil Darling

 

Comments:
10:40 pm Friday

I would be shocked if Oh So Terrible won and a little surprised if it is Thais. I don't really like Dona Bruja in this spot, despite the close finish last year. Inflexibility may have an early pace edge, but I'm not crazy about her on top, either. That leaves my main contenders as Daddys Lil Darling, Nyaleti, Sistercharlie, Fourstar Crook, and Athena.

Daddys Lil Darling offers some value, is a G1 winner, and likes the distance. I'll tab her as my 3rd choice.

Athena is one of two three-year old fillies in receipt of a solid six pounds here, and she just captured a G1 in her first try stateside. Nyaleti is the other sophomore with the weight break, and she is going to be a much better price. I like the video I saw of her in her last two races. The G1 Falmouth was a visually appealing race, and it is apparent to me that Nyaleti has talent. I think she was just up against some beasts in that race, and the rider asked too much of her to keep her close in the early going. I'm hoping the new rider allows her to settle into her own stride early in this race, because she showed in the G2 German Guineas win that she can motor down the lane when left with something in reserve. I'd love to see Inflexibility set a soft pace, with Nyaleti stalking in a nice rhythm in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. She may be a bit better on softer going, so if there is still some give to the ground after Thursday's heavy rains, it should be to her advantage. She's used to the undulating courses in Europe, so the added FLAT distance should not be an issue. The added distance should also help ensure that softer pace that I think she wants.

Race: Arlington Million

Win: Century Dream
Place: Almanaar
Show: Oscar Performance

 

Comments:
11:40 pm Friday

Divisidero will run at Saratoga instead of here - scratch.

If Oscar Performance is 3-1 come post time, I'll wager $100. He won't be. I doubt he is north of 2-1, and 9-5 is my cut-off for considering him in a win wager.

Almanaar is a G1 winner who got the easiest of preps last out and should appreciate the added distance. 5-1 feels right to me.

Century Dream likes to win and looks like a hard-trying sort from the few replays I watched. He gets over any sort of ground and is effective from a mile to this mile and a quarter distance (over undulating courses, so this flat 1-1/4 distance should be no issue). From his G3 win 3 races back, True Valour returned a winner. Then from G1 Queen Anne, Lightning Spear returned to take the G1 Sussex. The question I have to ask myself is: "could Suedois or Yoshida win this race?" Suedois finished just ahead of Century Dream last out, and Century Dream finished just ahead of Yoshida 2-back in the Queen Anne. I think those two foes would match up well against this field, so I'll take a shot with Century Dreams at nice odds.


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